Alex Smart |
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Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing long term $77000.00 plus dime player run! |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 03, 2024 Blue Jays vs Nationals |
UNDER 9 -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Nats starter Corbin ss 43-25 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored. KIKUCHI L/13 vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.2 rpg scored. WASHINGTON L/54 in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.3 rpg. Blue Jays hitters have been in a season-long drought and Im betting nothing changes today. Blue Jays are averaging 3.47 runs per game and have scored three runs or less in 18 of their 32 games this season. I know Corbin has not pitched well for the Nats this season, but the way the Jays have faltered Ill continue fading their offensive production at least for now. Toronto is scheduled to start left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (2-2, 2.94 ERA) in the opener of this series vs Washington and according to my power rankings matches up very well here. TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. TORONTO is 24-5 UNDER in road games after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. TORONTO is 10-1 UNDER vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season with a combined average of 6.4 rpg. TORONTO is 12-3 UNDER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season with a combined average of 7.3 rpg. TORONTO is 11-1 UNDER after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TORONTO) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or worse) against a horrible NL starting pitcher (ERA 5.50 or more , WHIP 1.650 or more ), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games are 30-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. Play under |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 03, 2024 Rockies vs Pirates |
Pirates -176 at circa |
Lost $176.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Pittsburghs starter PEREZ is 21-5 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) PEREZ is against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) PEREZ is 15-3 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) PEREZ is 14-2 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) PEREZ is 10-1 against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record). Perez is currently in top form, and owns a 2.86 ERA on the season, and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up very well against a struggling Colorado batting order. with a .229 road batting average.The Pirates lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his first six starts. One the flipside The Rockies will send struggling right-hander Cal Quantrill (0-3, 5.34 ERA), to the hill. Last time out he allowed a hefty six runs over five-plus innings in a 12-4 loss to the Houston Astros on Saturday in Mexico City. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a 5.50 ERA. I know the Pirates have not been getting much run production, but Colorado has also struggled to score consistently, and with the home side having had a day off, and the Rockies now playing their fourth straight road games, all losses, Im betting on the fresher side with the better starting pitcher to get the job done. Colorado has lost five straight and has not won a series this season. The Rockies have trailed at one point in each of their first 31 games, which is a modern-era major league record. They are currently the kings of futility and deserve their fade status here today in Pittsburgh. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - struggling NL hitting team (AVG .250 or worse) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or worsr), in May games are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) - bad offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games are 1-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NBA | May 03, 2024 Clippers vs Mavs |
Clippers +8 -110 at SC Consensus |
Lost $110.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
These teams have seas-awed back in forth in this series, and have played winning ball when Kawhi Leonard is not in the lineup winning 2 of 3, and he wont play tonight. Here in this game after going just 2-of-12 shooting Im betting James Harden has a big bounce back effort. The Clippers have already proved they can win in Dallas, and with their backs against the wall, they wont go down without a fight , as the well respected HC Lue Im betting will have his team ready to play and have a viable game plan prepared that can be implemented by his veteran squad and deep bench. LA CLIPPERS are 15-3 ATS L/18 in road games when trailing in a playoff series . NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after scoring 120 points or more are 55-107 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on the Clippers to cover |
SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |